"Lost" in thought: SOMEONE! DIES! TONIGHT!

OK, I have to admit that I'm slightly giddier than usual because of the patented "Lost" SOMEONE WILL DIE TONIGHT tease. You know Lindelof and Cuse will want to leave fans with a major cliffhanger that'll be discussed fervently by message board nerds. Plus, it'll have to sustain heavy interest considering tonight's installment is the last "Lost" episode until April 24, which is also when the show moves back an hour on Thursday nights.

Anyway, it's called "Meet Kevin Johnson," so we can safely assume that our island's favorite Benedict Arnold is finally getting a spotlight on his backstory since sheepishly exiting the dock. I've really been looking forward to Michael's boat travels, mainly because I'm so intrigued by Walt, but there's also some major build-up when you consider that a whole season has passed since we last saw Mr. Johnson. In fact, his betrayal is one of the only Season Two developments (outside Desmond, at least) worth remembering. Where did he end up? How has time affected his decision? Is he really working for Ben? Is he a clone? Where did he learn to manipulate a mop and bucket? So many questions.

According to Entertainment Weekly, we can expect the following to be revealed: "You'll find out a lot about Michael. But you'll ALSO learn why bearded Jack was unable to jump. AND where the Others are holed up." There's also a rumor that dead Libby shows up.

But back to that newly deceased cast member. Speculation is all over the place, and to be honest, I haven't paid much attention to who other bloggers believe is most likely to be on the chopping block this week. I can only make an evaluation based on my own viewing -- which, let's face it, is just as valid as anyone else's -- even if I'm dead wrong 70 percent of the time.

According to my gut, it won't be a too-new Freighter Four member, even though Miles still has a grenade in his mouth. I can't make good enough arguments for secondary characters like Alex or Karl because not enough has been revealed about them. That also seems pretty low on the drama scale.

So without further ado, here are my top five candidates for the Shannon treatment tonight:

JIN

Why: As I wrote last week, his redemptive arc is complete. Like Charlie, he's made the full island recovery, moving from brutal underground strongman to compassionate husband -- even going so far as to realize that Sun's infidelity was largely a result of how shabbily he treated her. Oh yeah, plus he has a TOMBSTONE in the future.

Why not: Seems too soon. As was noted by a commenter, it'd be fairly anti-climactic for Jin's death to be foreshadowed last week, and then make it happen in the next episode. Plus, we don't know that Jin is actually dead -- in fact, a lot of people don't think he is -- so keeping that guessing game going would only seem to enhance the show's overall sense of mystery.

CLAIRE

Why: Has Claire done anything significant since giving birth to Aaron? She's become a background extra at this point, with the show's writers not even giving her a shot of airtime to appropriately grieve Charlie's death. We also know that baby Aaron ends up in Kate's possession and Desmond had a vision of Claire boarding a helicopter. Connect the dots to Ben's ominous "... thought with your heart" comment to Sayid, and you could easily reach the conclusion that her time has come. And really, what causes more heartache (and eventual anger) than an innocent person biting the dust?

Why not: It's not as if "Lost" is into killing characters just because they don't serve a primary function in the present. While Claire seems to be gasping for airtime, she's also a well-liked, good-hearted individual who can serve a greater purpose at some point. She also has blood ties to Jack that haven't been fully explored, and in the end, it might be more interesting to have Kate with Aaron while knowing Claire is alive, yet can't be reached on the island.

MICHAEL

Why: It seems like a classic "Lost" move to re-introduce Michael, find out where he's been this whole time, and then immediately kill him. The show already went a full season without his presence, so losing Michael wouldn't be catastrophic. And while his recent story needs to be told, once it is, that should be satisfactory enough for viewers. After all, nothing more needs to be explored about his backstory. He's learned to reconnect with Walt -- who let's face it, has always been the more intriguing one. Plus, think about how many people probably want to strangle "Kevin Johnson" now that he's about to be exposed. Heck, he might want to kill himself just to escape Sayid's neck-twisting wrath, though it would also make sense for Michael to redeem himself in some sacrificial way tonight.

Why not: It could be a huge letdown to build-up Michael's betrayal and subsequent whereabouts only to knock him off in two episodes. Think about what the show did with Eko. Viewers were led to believe he was a crucial character and then -- poof -- he's gone in a blink. Michael is still a rich character who can offer a lot of tension on "Lost," specifically as it applies to making amends with his Oceanic mates and more important, Jacob wanting to tap into Walt's powers.

SAWYER

Why: Mr. Ford has been coasting as of late. Not only has he become comfortable with horseshoe playing in New Otherton; there's also the issue of his estrangement with Kate now that she turned down his proposal of "Little House on the Island" life. He also accomplished the only goal he's cared about since childhood -- killing Locke's dad, the real Sawyer. Seems like the circle is pretty complete.

Why not: His nicknames are too enjoyable. He's too much of a rebel bad-ass who can snap at any moment. He's also too good looking to take away from female viewers of the show. There's still plenty left in his tank.

JULIET

Why: Fans have had enough time to get emotionally invested in Juliet, and there doesn't appear to be any sign of her in the future. The lady doctor's death could resonate. She also has a redemptive arc to follow -- which could be completed by doing something sacrificial and disowning Ben's orders once and for all. Jack would also be pretty shattered, which could send him on a revenge-filled rampage and add new life to his character.

Why not: She's too instrumental in the island-birth-death plotline and is one of those crafty more-than-meets-the-eye characters that viewers want to trust, but don't know if they should. It makes her too intriguing from a plot standpoint. And her last flashback with Ben would indicate more juicy personal tales need to be told before she's no longer needed on the show.

Best odds in my opinion? Michael or Claire. Or maybe it'll be that creepy bald doctor on the freighter. Or Vincent will choke on a bone.

So dear reader ... who do you have in tonight's "Lost" death pool?

-- Thomas Rozwadowski, trozwado@greenbaypressgazette.com