There will be Oscars ... but will there be viewers?

UPDATE! According to early estimates, only 32 million people watched the awards Sunday night, the least-watched Oscars telecast ever. I bet more would have tuned in if they had known Jon Stewart was going to be playing Wii Tennis on a two-story-tall screen, but what are you gonna do?

The Oscars will air, with writing staff intact, Sunday night, and like every year there are a few sure bets. Daniel Day-Lewis is the odds-on favorite as Best Actor for "There Will Be Blood." The Coen Brothers will likely walk away with their first directing Oscar for "No Country For Old Men." And if "Norbit" doesn't win for Best Makeup, there is no God.

The big question still up in the air, however, is will anybody be watching? Academy Award audiences have been on steady decline for years now: Only about 40 million people tuned in last year, and 39 million the year before that. Compare that with the 97.5 million who watched the New York Giants drink up Tom Brady's milkshake earlier this month in the Super Bowl. (Draaaainage!)

OK, that may be an unfair example, but the Oscars are still in trouble, Nielsen-wise, and it's not hard to guess why. (In fact, you don't have to guess, you can just read this Reuters article.) Many feel that Oscar has lost touch with the average movie-goer, and this is reflected in the kinds of movies it nominates for top prizes. Of the five movies nominated for Best Picture this year, only one, "Juno," made more than $100 million at the box office.

(The reverse of that, of course, is that last year's top-grossing movies sucked majorly. "Spider-Man 3"? Venom? More like vomit. "Transformers"? Why couldn't that movie shape-shift into something not crappy?)

Oscar has also had a knack lately for picking the absolute wrong winners. Just look at this century alone: "Crash," "A Beautiful Mind," "Gladiator," "Chicago." Does ANYONE remember these movies, let alone still watch them? Last year, when "The Departed" won, ratings saw an uptick, because people at large enjoyed the hell out of that movie, even if it's wasn't "great" in the strictest sense. Likewise, affection for "Juno" could draw viewers back this year.

A major factor in viewership will be the resolved writers strike, accompanied by the glitz and glamour of Hollywood's brightest who now don't have to worry about crossing pesky picket lines. The strike turned January's Golden Globes into a dried-out press conference, watched by a paltry 5.8 million people, who obviously had nothing better to do that night. Those viewers who crave that red-carpet pageantry, and live or die by who Nicole Kidman and Halle Berry are wearing, will likely tune in Sunday night in droves.

I know I'll be watching, if only to see Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova perform Best Song nominee "Falling Slowly" from should-have-been-nominated-Best-Picture "Once." But what about you? Planning on watching Hollywood's big night? Got any predictions on winners? Gripes about your favorite movie getting snubbed? Share my loathing for "Transformers," which received three, count 'em THREE, nominations?

Until the big night, here's host Jon Stewart, discussing the show and the strike on "Larry King Live," admitting that he and his writers are definitely in crunch time trying to pull this off. You can do it, Jonny-boy! We believe in you!



-- Adam Reinhard, lifeisfunnybutnothahafunny@gmail.com